So what do we do when it happens twice to the same person? What are the odds of THAT?
A British mother named Sally Clark suffered two separate tragedies with the deaths of her infant sons. Her resulting trial for murder included expert testimony from Sir Roy Meadow, a noted expert on child abuse cases. And Meadow’s misuse of conditional probability painted Sally Clark as perpetrator rather than a victim.
Math is often theoretical, but sometimes doing it right is the difference between life and death.
*** PARTIAL LIST OF SOURCES ***
Ben-Israel, Adi. “Using Statistical Evidence in Courts: What Went Wrong in the Case of Sally Clark?” http://ben-israel.rutgers.edu/711/Sally_Clark.pdf
Dyer, Clare. “Falsely Convicted Sally Clarke Dies Suddenly.” BMJ: British Medical Journal, vol. 334, no. 7594, BMJ, 2007, pp. 602–03, http://www.jstor.org/stable/20506708.
General Medical Council v. Meadow, England and Wales Court of Appeals (Civil Division), http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2006/1390.html
Nobles, Richard, and David Schiff. “A Story of Miscarriage: Law in the Media.” Journal of Law and Society, vol. 31, no. 2, [Cardiff University, Wiley], 2004, pp. 221–44, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1410525.
Scheurer, Vincent. “Convicted on Statistics?” http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/545
Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. https://www.amazon.com/Math-Trial-Numbers-Abused-Courtroom/dp/0465032923
Watkins SJ. Conviction by mathematical error? Doctors and lawyers should get probability theory right. BMJ. 2000;320(7226):2-3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1117305/
Webster, Richard. “Roy Meadow and the Statistics of Cot Deaths.” http://www.richardwebster.net/cotdeaths.html
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